What current Nepalese political scenario suggests? People are being terrorized by the leaders and so called ”analysts” that if the tenure of Constituent Assembly (CA) is not extended, Nepal will witness a suicidal situation it never saw before. I laugh off the suggestion. Sky won’t fall down. There would be no bloodshed (as much of blood is already shed during People’s War). The only force that could lead and mobilize any organised revolt is Maoists. But, Maoists themselves aren’t ready for violence anymore. So, there’s no possibility of such war and bloodshed. Sporadic incidents of violence is another thing and it’s still being carried out in different parts of the kingdom. And, about the ongoing chaotic condition, we’ve been living with this ”eternity” for decades, thanks to our loused up politics.
One thing is clear: Royal Nepalese Army just can’t risk its professional image by taking over the state power (after so called Jestha 14). Moreover, it’s not ”experienced” in such stuffs and I also doubt does it really have stomach for it? Being propped up, as has been talked, just doesn’t make sure it works out. But yeah, army’s ambition might have been heightened as speculation of army takeover has long been discussed. To fuel the ambition further, army is unnecessarily depicted as so called strong, centuries-old and stable institution.
Dissolve CA. It’s of no use. A true people’s constitution cannot be written with this constituent assembly till criminal NC and UML posses seats in it. It would only give legitimacy to criminal NC and UML for longer, if not dissolved now. About Maoists, they always can’t carry it just because it’s their ‘child’. Once seen (and also touted as panacea) as a true future-maker of Nepalis, CA has now fallen into the hands of counter-revolutionaries and regressive criminals and thugs.
I’ve since been opponent of CA when it was decided without the consent of monarchy. Let it fall and go for a ‘people’s revolt’. Is it viable? People’s revolt could have been possible had Maoists not halted their indefinite general strike and mass demonstration. I don’t think any such uprising again is possible in near future. Maoists did a great blunder by deferring the strike. Thing is not about what the world thinks and how it reacts. If people are in support of a revolt for good, Nepal could survive well with pride as another Cuba and NKorea. And, I think Maoists have with them a large number of people and the number is enough to make a revolt happen. But, do they have stomach for the revolt? I barely believe.
Yet, I welcome their decision to not extend the tenure of CA until a national reconciliation is reached.
Now, even if they’re geared up for the revolt (let’s assume), season is not favourable. It’s a beloved time for peasants to work in their field in rainy season. So, for now, such revolt seems to be a thing of far away.
Blames won’t be (and cannot be) targeted at Maoists for the demise of CA because most of the commoners don’t believe it could give them a good constitution, given the political chicanery they’ve been witnessing in the name of CA . Some few capitalist city population could think otherwise but they’re no longer decisive.
Constitution alone is nothing. We want prosperity, not mere leaves of paper. About the need of so called ‘institutionalization’ of peace process, constitution is not an only one means. We already wrote half a dozen of constitutions and they’re just wasted and spoiled. So, keeping CA, a boondoggle, alive and ‘functioning’ is only a squandering of people’s hard-paid taxes and the state coffer. So, without any delay, DISSOLVE IT or let it dissolve itself. Jestha 15 won’t be any different than today, so far I think.
If Jestha 15, by some way, incites strong public reaction, I would only see how the reaction would be addressed. If people take the revolt on for a true change, I would love and happily be a part of them.